Hooray for Hollywood

And so it is time for me to display for all to see my official Oscar predictions!

I will give the caveat that I'm generally only righ 50% of the time. I tend to do well in most of the artistic categories, and most of the "big ones." I have hideous luck with the shorts and documentaries, even when I've seen them first, as I did last year at the National Archives. (I'm going this year, too - but it's not until Saturday.)

I'm sorry for the length of this post, but I wanted to at least give a brief explanation for each. My choices come from several influences, including the Globes and other award shows, Entertainment Weekly (my bible), and my own experience seeing a good portion of the nominees.

Picture - Brokeback Mountain

This is the most talked about film of the year, and with good reason. I would actually venture to say this is the one guaranteed win for Brokeback.

Director - Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain

There is so much good that can be attributed to Lee's direction, that I think he'll win. He's also won every major director's prize this year.

Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman

As I said before, it's a race between Philip and Heath. Ultimately I think the Academy will award the flashier role, and all the buzz lately is about Philip anyway. Either way I'll be happy.

Actress - Felicity Huffman

This is the category I'll peg as one I'm likely to be wrong in. All the buzz is on Reese, and she was indeed fabulous. But my gut (and my hope) is that the Academy will go with the "you're pretty but played 'ugly' so you should win" card and give it to Felicity.

Supporting Actor - George Clooney

This could be wide open, but I'm going to go on EW's guess that this will be a sort of "consolation prize," as Clooney will lose for Director and Screenplay. If William Hurt wins, I will dance naked around a maypole.

Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz

So many great choices here - I think Michelle Williams winning would be amazing, although she might break down at the podium. But Weisz really commanded her role, has buzz all over the place, and will be getting an award for her strong previous work as well.

Visual Effects - Chronicles of Narnia

Lots of big effect films this year, but I'm betting on the Lord of the Rings-type challenges in animating fantasy creatures like centaurs will win out.

Original Screenplay - Crash

If this wonderful film only wins one award, this will be it. It's complex twists and turns coupled with complex subject matter makes it a winner all around.

Adapted Screenplay - Brokeback Mountain

No contest - turning a sparse short story into a feature film is a Herculean feat.

Makeup - Chronicles of Narnia

Again, my gut says that the complex makeup (and hair) used for minotaurs and Tilda Swinton will win out.

Art Direction - Memoirs of a Geisha

When it comes to the "artsy" categories, the Academy loves period films and films set in faraway places. Geisha will see awards rain down like lotus petals.

Original Score - Brokeback Mountain

This is a very tough one. I mean, John Williams is in there, and he like NEVER loses. But the soft and moving score for Brokeback could charm voters enough.

Original Song - "Travelin' Thru," Transamerica

Also a challenge. I think this is a potential consolation prize if Felicity loses. And who doesn't love Dolly Parton?

Live Action Short Film - Ausreisser

I'm just relying on the EW descriptions for the shorts. This one is about a potentially threatening stranger on a train, which is very Hitchcockian, so...it wins.

Animated Short - 9

Something David & Goliath-like - sounds like a winner.

Animated Feature - Wallace and Gromit

This is easy - a truly great movie, which features painstaking plasticine animation.

Sound Editing - King Kong

I once heard that this category always goes to the loudest movie. 'Nuff said.

Sound Mixing - Walk the Line

This one is more about sound complexity, and I think that movies with a lot of musical numbers have an edge.

Film Editing - Crash

Pulling together all the strands of this movie had to be a tough job, so I think the editors will be rewarded.

Cinematography - Brokeback Mountain

If there's one thing this film deserves the most, this is it. Lush landscapes lit beautifully...it made Wyoming (or actually Alberta) look like paradise.

Foreign Language Film - Tsotsi

I hear very good things about this South African feature, and the name is just kinda cool.

Documentary Feature - March of the Penguins

This is the one of the two I've seen, and although I love Ballroom (and hear Murderball is excellent), Penguins was a phenomenon this summer, so I think it wins hands down. (And I think it's kind of awesome that this category has become so contentious in the last couple years.)

Documentary Short - God Sleeps in Rwanda

It's all about using Rwanda - such a touchpoint now thanks to a certain other film that took place there last year.

Costume Design - Memoirs of a Geisha

Artsy category + period costumes X a foreign land = winner.

So who do YOU think will win? If you haven't already, enter Sterfanie's contest! And I'd love to hear some of your predictions here as well. Good luck!