And the winners will be...

OK, here they are - my Oscar picks for 2007. I'm only going to discuss the "big" categories in detail. The rest I'll cast as part of my official ballot which I'll be emailing to Sterfanie, so she can verify I'm telling the truth after the show airs! (In particular I still need time on the shorts, as I plan on seeing them the Saturday before.) Also this year I decided to follow an old EW model, and talk about who I think will win, and who should. (My official ballot will have the "wills" not the "shoulds.")

Best Actor
Should win - Ryan Gosling
Will win - Forest Whitaker

OK, I admit I've only seen one performance in this category, so I'm a bit biased. But the quiet, understated performances are rarely rewarded, and it's about time they were. Still, all the momentum is around Forest. Run, Forest, run!

Best Actress
Should & will win - Helen Mirren

The biggest challenge in a biopic is emulating the person you're portraying without doing a straight-on impression. Considering how little we really know about Queen Elizabeth's private life, it's impressive how Helen Mirren was able to imagine it for us. Still I'll give kudos to incredibly strong performances from Judi Dench and Penelope Cruz. (Meryl Streep was terrific, but the character doesn't get much range.)

Best Supporting Actor
Should & will win - Eddie Murphy

If there's one thing the Oscars love, it's an actor doing something very different from their past work. And although those horrible ads for Norbit are everywhere, I still think the Academy will reward Eddie Murphy as a comeback kid.

Best Supporting Actress
Should & will win - Jennifer Hudson

The other thing the Oscars love is a breakout performance from a newcomer. Despite the apparent Dreamgirls backlash simmering in Hollywood, I think the vast majority still agree that Hudson rules the movie. The darkhorse will most certainly be Cate Blanchett. (The Babel babes may have impressed, but will split the vote - had either of them been nominated alone, I bet she could have won.)

Best Director
Should win - Alejandro González Iñárritu
Will win - Martin Scorsese

Juggling very different plots across the globe is an impressive feat, and is perhaps the one thing in Babel that truly deserves recognition. Also he had the challenge of working with children, through interpreters, no less. But Hollywood will want to reward Scorsese so he'll quit making movies in major New England cities with all men where everyone dies.

Best Picture
Should win - The Queen
Will win - Little Miss Sunshine

Setting Iwo Jima aside (didn't see it), the only one of these films I walked out thinking, "Loved it!" was The Queen. It really satisfied, and did what it set out to do, without going on too long. But considering the Academy is mostly full of actors, and they (for some reason) have this dumb love affair with Sunshine (which was good, but not incredible), I predict that it will come out on top and we'll be left scratching our heads the next day. Still, there is a good chance that Babel will win for its overall scope, which I would find to be a more satisfactory conclusion. (Never mind that the true winner should be Dreamgirls.)

Best Original Screenplay
Should win - Pan's Labyrinth
Will win - Little Miss Sunshine

In this category I really think the award should go to something very different and creative. And although Sunshine was certainly different, I think Labyrinth was the most inventive of the 5 nominees.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should win - Children of Men
Will win - The Departed

This is my need to reward what I thought actually could have been a Best Picture contender. Having read the novel, I can attest that Men was adapted really well, losing none of the book's power, but keeping the audience's interest. Instead, I'm going to bank that the Academy will give the only other award here for The Departed.